The 2024 BAFTA Film Awards occurred today at the Royal Festival Hall in London. The awards show, considered the U.K. equivalent of the Oscars, is a good precursor as to what the Academy might vote for.
Like with this year's Oscar nominations, “Oppenheimer” led with the most nods, 13 total. “Poor Things” follows with 11 nominations. All of the obvious frontrunners won, except in the Adapted Screenplay category — Cord Jefferson beat out Christopher Nolan.
Last year, BAFTA members made up around half (325) of the UK Academy voters (650). There has definitely been a rise in the number of international voters in the Oscar race, the UK bloc is the largest, followed by various European and Scandinavian countries. So, today’s winners do have a major impact in how the Oscar nominations might turn out.
BEST PICTURE
OppenheimerWe’re in for one of the most boring and predictable Oscar telecasts in ages. No, really, there aren’t many major categories where the winner isn’t already predestined. “Oppenheimer” will very likely win Best Picture. Christopher Nolan’s film doesn’t have any competition. “Poor Things”? Nope. “Killers of the Flower Moon”? Come on.
BEST ACTRESS
Emma Stone, Poor ThingsWith Lily Gladstone not even nominated for the BAFTA, it was a total cinch for Stone to win this category. Will she win her second acting Oscar next month? It’s starting to look more and more likely.
BEST ACTOR
Cillian Murphy, OppenheimerNot a shocker. The Oscar is still Cillian Murphy’s to lose, but I still believe Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”) has a shot at causing a huge upset in this category. We’ll see. It’s one of the very few major categories (along with Actress) that isn’t already sealed in the bag.
BEST DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan, OppenheimerAnother lock. Nolan will win his first directing Oscar on March 10. It’s been written in the stars since July. This also happens to be Nolan’s first BAFTA.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The HoldoversRandolph has now won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice and BAFTA. You’d be a fool to believe she won’t win the Oscar. No other nominee even comes close to making it a race. This has been a weak year for talent in this category and I don’t believe there is even a clear #2 at this point.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Downey Jr., OppenheimerAnother Oscar no-brainer. Downey Jr. has been the frontrunner since July and nobody has dethroned his momentum since then. There is a slight, very slight, chance that Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”) pulls off the upset, but who are we kidding here? Downey Jr will be an Oscar winner come the evening of March 10.
FILM NOT IN ENGLISH
The Zone of InterestNot that shocking given that this is home territory for writer-director Jonathan Glazer. “Anatomy of A Fall” lost. What Glazer’s film has going for it is how timely it is to Academy voters. If ‘Anatomy’ was France’s submission then it’d be a two-way, but we all know how that turned out.
ANIMATED SCREENPLAY
The Boy and the HeronThis year’s animated Oscar is a two-way race between Miyazaki’s “The Boy and the Heron” and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.” Miyazaki just won the BAFTA and I’ll play along with the Brits and predict that he’ll also win the Oscar for ‘Heron’. I love both of these films, but Miyazaki is too much of a legend in the Animated branch.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a FallBig win for Justine Triet and Arthur Harari. Their screenplay was meticulously constructed, in brilliant fashion, in its ambiguous approach to the courtroom drama genre. I still believe there’s a euro bias going on here and “The Holdovers” can still pull it off come Oscar crunch time.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American FictionWoah. The first big surprise. “Oppenheimer” was supposed to win this category. It will most likely win the Oscar, but Cord Jefferson pulls it off for his wonderful film, “American Fiction.” Go figure. His Oscar odds definitely went up with this win.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
20 Days in MariupolThis will win the Oscar as well. It has no serious competition, and, most pertinently, it tackles the Russia-Ukraine war.